Summer 2020 Prospects: Europe

Summer 2020 Prospects: Europe

The long summer season is about to begin for Europe. Here, I present an outlook that begins with a sub-monthly breakdown of June, then takes an overall look at each of July and August. Aside from some dynamical analysis at…

Skilful Prediction of Active Atlantic Hurricane Seasons

Skilful Prediction of Active Atlantic Hurricane Seasons

A Costly Climate Characteristic For the Caribbean and areas of the USA and Mexico that are close to or bordering the Gulf of Mexico or North Atlantic, the hurricane season regularly inflicts a heavy cost, both socially and economically. The…

Severe Thunderstorm Climatology Outside the USA

Severe Thunderstorm Climatology Outside the USA

In the previous blog entry, I took a close look at how and why US thunderstorms and tornadoes have been observed to reach intensities that have never (reliably) been observed elsewhere on the planet. This one casts an eye over…

Why USA Thunderstorms Can be the Most Severe

Why USA Thunderstorms Can be the Most Severe

In most countries of the world, a thunderstorm capable of producing more than a low-end (i.e. EF0 to EF2 on the Enhanced Fujita Scale, which I’ve outlined below) tornado is a rare phenomenon, typically seen no more than a few…

Rain Delivered by Sunshine

Rain Delivered by Sunshine

I’m sure many of us have experienced the drama of a sudden shower that seemed to come out of nowhere. Even a light one can play havoc with events from professional tennis to picnics. How can these soaking surprises manifest…

Will the Lock-Down Pollution Drop Spike Global Temperatures?

Will the Lock-Down Pollution Drop Spike Global Temperatures?

Across the world, many countries have enforced drastic ‘lock-down’ measures in recent weeks, in order to reduce the transmission rate of the COVID-19 coronavirus. This generally means that all non-essential travel and interactions between people have been forbidden. In the…

How Much Might Climate Affect COVID-19 Spread?

How Much Might Climate Affect COVID-19 Spread?

This viral entity hardly needs an introduction – it’s headline news all across the world. Looking ahead, there is a general expectation that in the Northern Hemisphere, the spring and summer seasons will supress the spread of the virus, buying…

Last Winter’s Temperature Patterns Forebode Strong Arctic Sea Ice Melt

Last Winter’s Temperature Patterns Forebode Strong Arctic Sea Ice Melt

Relatively speaking, it’s been a sweltering winter season for the Northern Hemisphere. Depending on which dataset you look at, the Dec-Feb averaged surface temperatures rank 1st or 2nd highest in recorded history. The winter that it comes second to in…

An Unusual Combination as Spring 2020 Begins

An Unusual Combination as Spring 2020 Begins

The Polar Vortex Has Been Acting Strangely… This Jan-Feb, a powerful phenomenon known as the polar vortex has been rampant. Its intensity has frequently hit record levels for the time of year, particularly in Feb. This has been driving a…

The Far-Reaching Stories of Storms ‘Ciara’ & ‘Dennis’

The Far-Reaching Stories of Storms ‘Ciara’ & ‘Dennis’

Early to mid-Feb 2020 has proven tempestuous for parts of northern Europe. During 9th-11th, storm ‘Ciara’ (as named by the UK Met Office; UKMO) brought widespread disruption, initially to the UK and then to many neighbouring countries in Europe. At…

Expanding Desert Climate Zone – Cause & Effects

Expanding Desert Climate Zone – Cause & Effects

The Earth sports two large belts of predominantly dry, sunny weather – the subtropical dry zones. We’ll explain how and why these desert climate zones are advancing. One’s in the Northern Hemisphere and spans from the subtropical North Atlantic ocean…

Winter 2020 – Extremely Mild for Europe?

Winter 2020 – Extremely Mild for Europe?

A note to mobile viewers: If your device has a ‘reader view’, I recommend it for the best viewing experience.   7th Jan 2020, temperatures in my home country of England widely reached 14 to 15°C. That’s what we consider…

Driving Forces Behind Australia’s Extreme Wildfire Season

Driving Forces Behind Australia’s Extreme Wildfire Season

Economic Impact… The Insurance Council of Australia increased its estimate for wildfire damage claims to over $700 million, expected to increase. Treasurer Josh Frydenberg met with the CEO’s of insurers Insurance Australia Group, Suncorp Group and QBE Insurance Group, and…

Festive Finalé: Will You Be in the Snow?

Festive Finalé: Will You Be in the Snow?

Look ahead to Europe and the US’s festive weather, while learning a little more about what makes a snow day…   Festive Flakes? Forecasters in Northwest Europe will be especially familiar with (if not tired of!) the phrase… ‘Will we…

Frost – Part 2: Darker Side

Frost – Part 2: Darker Side

Part one explored the bright side of frost, in its many wondrous forms. Now, we come to the more applied effects of frost.   Frost and Fragility First, I’ll quickly cover plants! The vulnerability of tender spring growth to frost…

Frost – Part 1: Bright Side…

Frost – Part 1: Bright Side…

If you’ve ever looked a little closer on a clear, cold winter morning, you might have noticed differences in frost patterns and formation: Find out where, when – and why – you’ll find crystalline, continuous and spiked frost manifestations…  …

Wet West-European Autumn 2019: Exploring Explanations

Wet West-European Autumn 2019: Exploring Explanations

It’s been a soaking wet Autumn for much of Europe. Many areas have seen between 150 and 200% of the long-term average rainfall (Figure 1). Parts of Spain have seen even larger surpluses; seasonal anomalies were near 250% for the…

Climate Change: A New Inconsistency

Climate Change: A New Inconsistency

James Peacock… our Head Meteorologist Takes a Look at The Intricate Realities of a Changing Climate in Weather Terms Climate change is not uniform between places and seasons. We assume warming is occurring, and as a trend, it is true…

Venice Flood of Nov 2019: How & Why?

Venice Flood of Nov 2019: How & Why?

Shocking scenes in Venice have made headlines far and wide this week. The legendary Italian city experienced its highest water levels in more than 50 years. Reaching 1.87 m (6 ft) above mean water at their peak, they submerged over…

Thanksgiving – Part II (Signs for 2019)

Thanksgiving – Part II (Signs for 2019)

We looked at some of the most disruptive Thanksgiving snowstorms of years past in Part I. Now, it’s time to turn forward. Let’s see which way the signs point for this year’s traditional celebrations. Snowstorm Signals for the Peak Travel…

Thanksgiving – Part I (History)

Thanksgiving – Part I (History)

A Legendary Tradition One of the United States’ greatest annual celebrations approaches – Thanksgiving. This long-standing tradition originated in Oct 1621 as a celebration, by the Pilgrims, of their first harvest in the New World. In 1789, it was adapted…

“Ice in November to Bear a Duck…”

“Ice in November to Bear a Duck…”

Every autumn in the UK, this phrase from old weather lore starts appearing on weather forums: “Ice in November to bear a duck, rest of the winter be slush and muck.” In fact, I’ve genuinely seen this used as a…

Hurricane Lorenzo: Things to Come?

Hurricane Lorenzo: Things to Come?

Between 3 and 9 am GMT on Sun 29th Sep 2019, Hurricane Lorenzo achieved peak sustained wind speeds of 160 mph, making it a category 5 on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Just how strong is that? Well, the scale I just…

IAAF World Athletics Championships Doha 2019

IAAF World Athletics Championships Doha 2019

WHERE WEATHER MEETS SPORTS RECORD BEATING   Doha has been chosen as the conditions should be perfect to run fast times. Meaning world records guys. It might be assumed that in this desert location will leave competitors gasping for breath….

The Troubling Legacy of 2019’s Extreme Arctic Warmth

The Troubling Legacy of 2019’s Extreme Arctic Warmth

Through great efforts by researchers to raise awareness and understanding outside of scientific circles, it has become widely accepted that losing the Arctic Ocean’s sea ice cover would have serious negative ramifications. The 2019 sea ice melting season (mid-March to…

London & Paris Fashion Week 2019 – The Weather Is What You Wear

London & Paris Fashion Week 2019 – The Weather Is What You Wear

London Fashion Week: Friday 13 September – Tuesday 17 September Paris Fashion Week: Monday 21 September – Tuesday 3 October   In this first week of September, there’s a coolness in the air and daylight hours are drawing in. Seasonal…

The Arctic: The Fastest-Changing Climate on Earth

The Arctic: The Fastest-Changing Climate on Earth

Exceptional warmth in the Arctic regions has grabbed a lot of attention in 2019. Some regions have seen long-standing temperature records broken by wide margins. In many cases this has been tied in with sea and land ice loss on…

Weather Prospects: Cowes Week 2019

Weather Prospects: Cowes Week 2019

“Hurry up and wait…” told by a Sailor & a Meteorologist For this blog piece, I’ve teamed up with our in-house sailor Shaun Pammenter (MSc) to provide tailored insight on the regional and local wind patterns of the Solent. Conditions…

Spring 2019 Event Guidance Review

Spring 2019 Event Guidance Review

How Our Event Guidance Fared: Mar-Jun 2019 In the past four months, we’ve provided guidance individually for a variety of exciting events, via climatological data and expert weather pattern insight. We take a look back at when these hit home…

Baked Alaska: The How & Why

Baked Alaska: The How & Why

Just a week after record breaking heat affected Central and Western Europe, another exceptional heatwave is getting underway – in an unexpected location… Alaska. As of writing this on July 4th, it’s already breaking records, with more likely to fall…

Western Europe’s Extreme Late June 2019 Heatwave

Western Europe’s Extreme Late June 2019 Heatwave

A western-European heatwave of unprecedented intensity for the month, has already been breaking national June heat records as of 26th – and it’s set to reach even more extreme highs 27th-28th. Not only that, but it’s breaking some all-time records…

Weather Prospects: Wimbledon 2019

Weather Prospects: Wimbledon 2019

During international transitions, some things stay the same – while retaining inherent unpredictability. Such as Wimbledon. 1st-15th July, top-tier tennis players from far and wide will converge on London’s famous Wimbledon courts to take part in one of the oldest…

Why Has UK Weather Been So Wet & Why Will Showers Abate?

Why Has UK Weather Been So Wet & Why Will Showers Abate?

Part 2 of 2   Let’s Recap… As explained in part one, some disparate & distant weather systems came together to create unusual events and drenched UK citizens wistfully awaiting summer. Strong warming of the atmosphere well above our heads,…

Why is the UK Weather So Wet & When Will it Turn Drier?

Why is the UK Weather So Wet & When Will it Turn Drier?

Part 1 of 2   We look at how 2019 is bending the rules in weather pressure patterning, and why Indian Ocean thunderstorms mean you need to remember your umbrella. For the UK, the story of June 2019: Exceptionally High…

Weather Prospects: Glastonbury 2019

Weather Prospects: Glastonbury 2019

HOT & DRY HEADLINING or WET WEATHER on stage? In 2017 thousands of heady festival revellers experienced the hottest days in Glastonbury’s history. Yet coming one week after the summer solstice, and as much as we love it, mud baths…

D-Day 75th Anniversary: A Historic Weather Forecast

D-Day 75th Anniversary: A Historic Weather Forecast

During 2nd-9th June 2019, spanning the anniversaries of the battle of Normandy and D-Day (6th June), the Daks over Normandy events will launch a summer of celebration and remembrance. We find out how weather risk prediction played an essential role…

Why so wet and wild in the UK lately?

Why so wet and wild in the UK lately?

Since March got underway, there’s been a lot of wet and windy weather affecting the UK. Early today, things stepped up another gear in my locality, with my own back garden suffering some of the worst damage… I’m sure many…

Fog Formation & Economic Cost

Fog Formation & Economic Cost

This phenomenon has five main forms based on how they develop, but the most problematic is usually radiation fog. It can form just about anywhere and has disruptive impacts that go well beyond being stuck in traffic on the morning…

Swift Guide to Geopotential Heights

Swift Guide to Geopotential Heights

Geopotential height (GPH) is an extremely effective measure to use when assessing large-scale, long-term weather patterns. Between the subtropics and the polar regions (mid-latitudes), it reveals the location of major boundaries along which extratropical low pressure systems frequently develop. It…

The Stratosphere & The Polar Vortex

The Stratosphere & The Polar Vortex

This blog entry provides a quick overview of the stratosphere and the polar vortex. Both are of immense importance for understanding and forecasting Earth’s weather patterns.   Atmospheric Layer-Cake Earth’s atmosphere consists of five main layers, each with distinctive characteristics….

Stratosphere Warming Events

Stratosphere Warming Events

As detailed in my piece on the stratosphere and the polar vortex, the polar vortex is a vast atmospheric circulation that strongly influences mid-latitude weather patterns between mid-autumn and mid-spring. It doesn’t have an easy existence, mind. It’s frequently pushed,…

#InsiderLondon Conference: 28th Jan: Come & Chat to Us!

Visit our Stand Are you attending The Insurance Insider’s first conference of 2020?… Described as, ‘if you only had time to make it to one conference a year, an annual visit to Insider London would be sufficient to keep you abreast of…

Insider Quarterly Winter 2019

‘Fascinating and Controversial’: Feature article asking how can innovative weather analytics enable the insurance sector’s adaptibility in a rapidly changing climate?   In our article, described by Insurance Insider as ‘fascinating and controversial’, we ask: What are the realities of…

Welcome to our new website

Hopefully it helps you explore the amazing ways MetSwift’s new meteorological intelligence can change the way you access and understand future weather risk. Any ideas about further content you’d like to see? Just let us know… What else have we…

Award Winners: Best Use of AI in Underwriting

Insurance Times Tech & Innovation Awards On the 28th September we won the Best Use of AI in Underwriting, the Insurance Times Tech & Innovation Awards. The judges describes MetSwift as ‘a potential gamechanger for underwriting weather risks across complex…

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